With record-breaking heat, sea levels rising, and a surge in devastating storms and wildfires, there’s no denying climate change is here. It's likely to only get worse in coming decades, and that can affect the decisions you make today. Thirty-year mortgages are the norm when buying a home, so where you decide to settle down now could look markedly different in the years to come.
That's why it's important to know which areas are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change than others.
We looked at the top 50 largest urban areas in the United States and measured them against several climate change indicators to paint a picture of which ones might fare better as temps warm and sea levels rise over the next few decades — and which ones might be worse off.
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How we ranked these cities
Using 2020 U.S. Census Bureau data, we identified the 50 most populated metro statistical areas in the country. We then analyzed data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and several other studies across six key factors to determine which of those metro areas were the best and worst for climate change.
For more details, see our full methodology.
Heat and humidity. We analyzed data from a 2017 Rutgers University study of U.S. county-level climate projections from 2040 to 2059 to calculate the average days with extreme heat over 95 degrees Fahrenheit and high wet bulb temperatures above 80 degrees Fahrenheit. Wet bulb temperatures reflect both heat and humidity — a combination that, at extreme temperatures, is deadly.
Flooding and sea level rise. We analyzed data from First Street Foundation to determine the percentage of properties in each city projected to be in a 100-year flood plain in 2050, meaning it has a 1% chance of flooding in any given year. We also looked at the percentage of properties projected to have at least a 10% annual chance of flooding due to sea level rise by 2040. This data was only available for certain coastal cities, but it was important enough to those cities that we included it.
Natural disasters. We used annualized frequency data from FEMA, which uses occurrences from 2014 to 2021 to calculate the annual frequency of hurricanes, tornadoes, and wildfires in each city.
Air quality. We analyzed data from the U.S. EPA to determine the number of days in 2021 with registered “good” air quality in each city.
Social vulnerability. We analyzed data from the University of South Carolina’s Social Vulnerability Index to identify each city’s susceptibility to death, injury, and disruption from natural hazards.
Community resilience. We analyzed data from the University of South Carolina’s Social Vulnerability Index to identify each city’s ability to prepare for and adapt to changing conditions.
The result is a theoretical suggestion of which cities might fare best or worst in the coming 30 years. And since we only looked at the 50 largest cities in the U.S., it bears to keep in mind that while San Francisco has the lowest risk on this list, it actually has a much higher risk than many smaller cities in the U.S.
The best cities for climate change
1. San Francisco, California
California may not be the first place that comes to mind when you think of climate resiliency, but San Francisco is a different story, earning the highest score of the 50 cities in our study.
Heat isn’t a major issue in San Francisco, and climate change isn’t expected to drastically change that. The Golden City is predicted to have just three days of extreme heat per year by 2050, and less than a full day of high heat and humidity.
Sea level rise is also expected to minimally impact residential areas of San Francisco, despite its location on its namesake bay. A low percentage of properties are in 100-year flood plains, and that’s not expected to change at all in the next 30 years.
San Fran is also largely immune to the climate-related disasters we measured in our study, with few hurricanes and tornadoes expected. And though Northern California is very prone to wildfires, San Francisco itself is not. Nearby Santa Clara County’s annualized wildfire occurrence is 5,215% higher than San Francisco.
Despite those nearby wildfires affecting air quality, San Francisco still fared better than the average of the cities on this list, with 86% of days in 2021 registering “good” air quality.
For the two social factors we considered, San Francisco scored well on social vulnerability, which measures how susceptible a community is to natural disaster, and even more favorably for community resilience, which measures how well a community is preparing and adapting for climate change.
San Francisco: Our number one city for escaping climate change — though obviously potential earthquakes are a different story.
2. Seattle, Washington
Like San Francisco, Seattle doesn’t expect to see a drastic increase in days with extreme heat or high heat and humidity. Just four extreme heat days are projected annually from 2040 to 2059, and less than two days with high heat and humidity.
The biggest concern for Seattleites? Flooding, though even those numbers are relatively low for a city that sits on the Puget Sound. Less than 10% of its properties are expected to be in 100-year flood zones by 2050 — and that’s just a 0.5% increase from properties in flood zones today. And even though sea level rise is expected to affect 0.35% of properties by 2050, that’s well below the 1.35% average for the cities in our study.
Surprisingly, its wildfire risk remains low considering the rest of the state has seen an increase in blazes from 2020 to 2021. [1] And although it’s starting to see a “smoke season” from wildfires burning throughout the West, air quality in Seattle is better than the average of the cities in our study: 83% of days in 2021 were “good” air quality versus the average of 63%.
3. Columbus, Ohio
Columbus is three on our list for best cities for climate change, though some of its projected numbers will make you realize that San Francisco and Seattle are largely anomalies in how relatively unaffected they’ll be by the changing climate. Climate change is coming for most of us — even in top ranking cities in this study.
The biggest risk facing Columbus residents is heat. Ohioans can expect steamier summers come 2050 with an average of 20 days of extreme heat predicted — 18 more days than they’re experiencing now. And unfortunately, that’s not a dry heat. The number of days with high heat and humidity is similarly expected to increase to nearly 17 annually by 2050 — almost 15 more days than today.
On the brighter side, the risk of hurricanes, tornadoes, and wildfires remains low as time goes on. Flooding also shouldn’t be a big issue in the future: The percentage of properties in 100-year flood zones is only expected to rise 0.5% versus today — to 4.4% in 2050.
Though it ranks in the middle of the pack for community resilience, Ohio's capital is well-positioned to adapt to its changing climate — thanks largely in part to Mayor Ginther’s bold climate action plan for the city to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. [2]
4. Minneapolis, Minnesota
Coming in at number four on our list, the biggest threat Minneapolis residents face is heat. By 2050, residents can expect around 15 extremely hot days per year — that’s nearly 13 more than today. And those rising temps will see with it a rising dew point: Days with high heat and humidity are also expected to increase to almost 19 days per year — 14 more than today.
While 7.2% of properties will be in 100-year flood zones come 2050, that’s just 0.1% more than today.
So how is the city preparing for this sweltering heat wave? Pretty well, if its community resiliency score has anything to say about it. Since 2013, the city has been working to reduce energy use, recycle half of all city waste, and build 30 miles of bicycle lanes to promote green transportation in an effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30% by 2025. [3]
5. Baltimore, Maryland
Like Columbus and Minneapolis, residents of Baltimore can expect to feel the biggest effects of climate change in the form of hotter temps. The Charm City can expect an average of 24 days of extreme heat and 11 days of high heat and humidity per year by 2050. That’s an increase of around 18 days and 10 days, respectively. And it appears that Baltimore’s warm summer breeze is clean, too — 75% of the measured days in 2021 were registered as “good” air quality.
What about flooding? Even though the city sits on the Chesapeake Bay, the rise in sea level isn’t going to be a huge issue over the next 30 years: Just 4.8% of properties will be in 100-year flood plains by 2050, an increase of just 0.4% from today.
Baltimore also scores high on its social and community resiliency scores, which isn’t surprising considering the city completely overhauled its disaster preparedness plan in 2018 and is taking steps to achieve full carbon neutrality by 2045. [4] [5]
6. Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Milwaukee slides in at number six on our best cities for climate change list thanks to its below-average number of days with extreme heat predicted for 2050 — just 9 days versus the average of 44 days for the rest of the cities in this study. However, it’ll still feel the effects of heat and humidity as much as other cities on this list — a projected 19 days for 2050 (compared to the average of 18 days for all of the cities in this index).
While you’d expect a city situated on Lake Michigan to see an above-average threat of flooding, that’s not the case. By 2050, just shy of 5% of Milwaukee properties will be in 100-year flood plains, an increase of only 0.35% over today. But its air quality isn’t quite the breath of fresh air you’d expect — just 58% of days in 2021 were considered “good” air quality versus the 63% average for the cities in this index.
Milwaukee might be prepared for the changing climate — scoring high marks for its community resiliency score — but the same can’t be said for its social vulnerability score. The city scores four times lower than the other cities in this top 10 list. While this likely has more to do with the civil unrest and record-breaking violence the city has seen in the wake of the murder of George Floyd in 2020, it may be indicative of how quickly the residents would bounce back after a climate-related disaster.
7. Portland, Oregon
While Portland is getting hotter, it’s not nearly as balmy as other cities on this list. By 2050, the Rose City will only see 13 extreme heat days and around nine days with high heat and humidity. Though this is more than residents are currently experiencing, it’s still below average for the cities in this study.
But where Portland stands out is its higher-than-average percentage of properties flooding by 2050. Around 12% of homes and businesses will be located in 100-year flood zones — over 1% more than today and the highest increase of any city on our best list.
Fortunately, like Seattle and San Francisco, the air quality in Portland seems relatively unaffected by the acres of burning forests in its backyard. Air quality is well above average, with 89% of measured days registering as “good.”
Portland also scored well for both social vulnerability and community resilience, which isn't surprising given that it's the first city in the U.S. to create a local action plan for cutting carbon, which it enacted all the way back in 1993. [6]
8. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Like Portland, the City of Bridges isn’t projected to get too, too hot. Residents can expect to see just 10 days of extreme heat and just over 13 days of high heat and humidity each year by 2050 — both below average compared to the other cities in this study.
But the same can’t be said for flooding. Situated along three rivers, Pittsburgh has a higher-than-normal portion of homes that will be in 100-year flood plains by 2050: 12.4% versus the average of 11% for the cities in this study. Though this is only up 0.4% from today, it shows the necessity for the city to start planning now for this continued trend in flood risk.
With no hurricane or wildfire risk, and a generally low risk of tornadoes, the only other main concern Pittsburgh residents should have is the city’s poor air quality. Only 47% of measured days in 2021 were “good,” versus the 63% average.
This is most likely due to high hydrogen sulfide rates caused by steel plants in the area. But with U.S. Steel canceling plans for $1 billion in upgrades to three of its Mon Valley Works facilities in 2021, clean air advocates expect to see an improvement in air quality over the next few years. [7]
But the city is resilient — earning one of the highest community resilience score of the cities on our best list. This is probably thanks in large part to the Pittsburgh Equity Indicators project it started back in 2017, which is focusing efforts on improving air quality issues, inequality, public health challenges, and other stressors affecting residents. [8]
9. Richmond, Virginia
Even though Richmond residents can expect a full month of extreme heat by 2050, it still comes in below the average of 44 days for the cities in this study.
Instead, the historic city’s real threat lies in the rising sea level and hurricane risk. Three percent of Richmond homes are expected to be at risk for flooding in 2050 — nearly double the average on this list. And the percentage of homes in 100-year flood zones is expected to rise to 5.3%. Add to this the increase in hurricanes in Richmond as storms make landfall in the Carolinas and move inland, and we’re looking at a perfect storm for flooding.
Fortunately, with those stormy skies comes relatively good air quality: 87% of the measured days in 2021 had “good” air quality in Richmond versus the average of 63%.
10. Denver, Colorado
Rounding out our list of the best cities for climate change is the Mile High City. Though Denver residents can expect an average of 33 days of extreme heat by 2050, its lack of humidity isn’t projected to change over the coming decades. And while there’s some flooding risk — with almost 3% of homes expected to be in a 100-year flood zone by 2050 — the overall increase is low at just 0.1%.
So is Colorado devoid of any severe climate-related challenges? Not quite. It scores similarly to Portland and Seattle in its risk of wildfires. But unlike those other two cities, it scores below average for air quality — with just 43% of days measuring “good” in 2021.
Unfortunately, the city doesn’t seem to be as good at adapting to the changing climate as others on our best list — scoring fairly low for its community resilience.
The worst cities for climate change
1. Houston, Texas
Our study reveals that the devastation wrought on Houston by Hurricane Harvey in 2017 may be an ominous foreshadowing of the city’s future. And that’s before we even talk about the heat.
Houston is the worst city for climate change of the 50 cities in our study, and things look pretty bleak. Texans can expect to see 85 days of extreme heat per year by 2050 — double the average for the cities in our study. And it’ll be a sticky heat to boot, with nearly 64 days of high heat and humidity projected — over three times the average of the cities in our study.
While sea level risk is relatively low, the percentage of properties in 100-year flood plains is above average at nearly 16% — an increase of 2.7% from today.
As you probably guessed, the risk of hurricanes is high and tornadoes is very high. And while the city doesn’t have to worry about wildfires, its air quality leaves much to be desired: Just 44% of days in 2021 measured “good” in terms of air quality.
So how is the city responding to this climate crisis? Not well, as it turns out — scoring below average for both social vulnerability and community resilience. But the city is taking steps to change this.
Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner just announced a new green initiative in February 2022 called Resilient Now, aimed to increase the use of renewable energy resources, promote electric transportation, and address community challenges brought on by extreme weather. [9]
2. Miami, Florida, 3. Tampa, Florida, 4. Jacksonville, Florida, 5. Orlando, Florida
The Sunshine State makes our list not once, not twice, not thrice, but four times, with Miami, Tampa, Jacksonville, and Orlando all holding court at spots two through five on our worst cities for climate change list.
Though all four cities are in different corners of the state, the story is largely the same throughout: There is going to be heat, there is going to be water, and there is going to be wind.
By 2050, Orlando is expected to see the most extreme heat days at 64 days, followed by Jacksonville at 57 days, Tampa at 56 days, and Miami at 33 days. Meanwhile, Jacksonville will see the highest number of days of high heat and humidity at nearly 52 days, followed by Orlando at 43 days, Miami at around 42 days, and Tampa at nearly 33 days.
No city in the state is immune to flooding, either. Rising sea levels will impact 5% of properties in Miami, 1.24% in Jacksonville, and 1.05% in Tampa. And the percentage of properties projected to be in 100-year flood plains in 2050 is 42% for Miami, 24% for Tampa, 18% for Jacksonville, and 6% for Orlando.
And we haven’t even gotten to hurricanes, tornadoes, and wildfires — all of which have a high probability of occurring in each Florida city.
The one concession? Air quality is above average in all four cities.
But when it comes to social vulnerability and community resilience, Miami scores lower than the rest of the Florida cities in terms of preparedness for what appears to be impending climate catastrophes on the horizon.
6. New Orleans, Louisiana
It’s no surprise that New Orleans, the city that was 85% underwater after Hurricane Katrina hit and took over 14 years to recover, would make our list of the worst states for climate change. [10]
While there’s no sea level data for The Big Easy, the 100-year flood plain projections are harrowing: 99% of homes in New Orleans will be in a 100-year flood plain by 2050 — an increase of 66% from today. That’s by far the largest increase of any city in our study. To put this into context, the next largest increase is Miami’s 8%.
The city is also getting hotter — with 44 days of extreme heat per year expected by 2050. That’s not a dry heat, either, with 49 days of high heat and humidity projected per year— more than double the average.
And then there’s the likelihood of natural disasters — namely hurricanes and tornadoes — both of which pose grave risks for the residents of New Orleans each year.
The one silver lining is that New Orleans’ air quality is very high: 96% of measured days were “good” in 2021.
While it’s social vulnerability score is low, this isn’t all that surprising given how many people are injured or killed during named storms each year. It scores very high on its community resilience score, proving that the people of New Orleans won’t give up without a fight — even where climate change is concerned. The city itself has an ambitious climate action plan to reduce carbon emissions by 50% by 2030, among other initiatives to strengthen the community. [11]
7. Los Angeles, California
While San Francisco seemed largely unaffected by the changing climate, the same can’t be said for the City of Angels. Coming in at number seven on our worst list, Los Angeles’s poor climate largely comes down to air quality and wildfires. Both are bad now, and we can expect both to get much worse in the coming years.
Just 15% of measured days registered as “good” air quality in LA in 2021. And there’s a high risk of wildfires, exacerbating the already bad smog and pollution brought on by congested shipping ports.
The city also has some flood risk: Nearly 10% of homes will be in 100-year flood plains by 2050. And while the city will remain free of humidity, it’s getting hotter like all of the other cities on this list. LA residents can expect 34 extreme heat days by 2050.
How is the city adapting to all of this? Not well — scoring poorly on both social vulnerability and community resilience.
8. Memphis, Tennessee
Coming in at number eight, rising heat and humidity are just one more reason for Memphis residents to be singing the blues. The city is expected to see 63 days of extreme heat per year by 2050, and around 49 days of high heat and humidity.
It also has a higher-than-average risk for both hurricanes and tornadoes compared to other cities on our list. And nearly 7% of properties are expected to be in 100-year flood plains in 30 years time.
Its one redeeming quality appears to be in the air: Over 70% of measured days in 2021 had “good” air quality — above average for the cities in our study.
9. Riverside, California
Like its neighboring LA County, Riverside tops our list of the worst cities for climate change thanks to its record-breaking heat. [12] And it’s only expected to get worse. By 2050, the SoCal city is expected to have the highest number of extreme heat days of any city in our study: nearly six months — or 178 days. Wildfires also pose a serious risk for the area, resulting in poor air quality — with just 20% of measured days in 2021 registering “good.”
Continuing the trend of poor community resilience scores among most of the worst cities on this list, Riverside is another one that doesn’t seem all that prepared for the changing climate.
10. Virginia Beach, Virginia
Closing out our list of the worst cities for climate change is Virginia Beach. Its biggest threat? Flooding. By 2050, 4% of properties will have a 10% annual chance of flooding due to sea level rise. And nearly 17% of properties will be in 100-year flood plains — an increase of 6% over today.
While it won’t be as hot as other cities on this worst list, it has a high risk of both hurricanes and tornadoes thanks to its proximity to the Atlantic. Like New Orleans and Memphis, its one redeeming quality is its air quality: 91% of days in 2021 registered “good.”
The best and worst cities for climate change
How U.S. cities compare across 4 key climate change indicators
Climate change insurance tips for homeowners
As climate change continues to wreak havoc across the U.S., it’s getting harder and more expensive to buy homeowners insurance in the cities at the highest risk of natural disasters. Many insurance companies have pulled out of Florida and California due to the heightened risk of hurricanes and wildfires, leaving homeowners scrambling to find coverage through their state’s Fair Access to Insurance Requirements (FAIR) Plans.
To help minimize the burden of climate change on your purse strings — and ensure your home is fully protected should disaster strike — here are a few tips for purchasing home insurance amid an ever-changing climate.
Invest in weather-proofing your home and property
Weather-proofing your home to mitigate damage can pay off in the form of lower homeowners insurance premiums. If you live in an area prone to hurricanes or tornadoes, installing storm shutters to your windows and hurricane straps to your roof can add an extra layer of protection from the elements.
Similarly, if you live in an area at high risk of wildfires, taking the steps to install comprehensive sprinkler systems throughout your property, clearing brush piles at greater risk of catching fire, and adding fire alarm security systems that automatically alert local authorities to a fire are all ways to prevent blazes and lower your home insurance costs in the process.
Reassess your coverage needs each year
With a changing climate comes changing risks to your home. For example, as sea levels rise, so does the risk of your home ending up in a high-risk flood zone. The same can be said for rising temperatures and wildfires, and increased hurricanes and wind damage.
Reassessing your home’s coverage needs each year can help ensure you have enough protection to fully rebuild your home and replace your belongings should a natural disaster hit.
This might mean buying separate flood insurance or windstorm coverage in addition to your standard homeowners insurance. Or adding an endorsement for wildfire coverage to your existing policy if your city sees an increased risk of blazes over the coming years.
Re-shop your home insurance each year to find the best deal
No two insurance companies assess your home’s risk the same way. This is why it pays to re-shop your policy each year to make sure you’re still getting the best deal possible amid the changing climate. Some insurers might place more weight on your home’s flood risk than others. Same goes for your home’s risk of wildfires or windstorms.
The easiest way to re-shop your policy is to use an insurance marketplace like Policygenius, that will do the work for you. You essentially fill out a short form online to provide information about you, your home, and your coverage needs, and a licensed agent will crunch the numbers to find you the best policy at the best price. They’ll even help you switch companies, purchase your new policy, and cancel your old one — all for free.
Methodology
To identify the best places to live by 2050 if you’re worried about climate change, we analyzed the 50 largest urban areas in the United States across 13 data points:
Number of days with extreme heat: Projected average number of days from 2040 to 2059 with temperatures above 95 degrees Fahrenheit. (Rasmussen, D. J.; Meinshausen, Malte; Kopp, Robert E.)
Increase in days with extreme heat: Projected increase in extreme heat days compared to the present day. (Rasmussen, D. J.; Meinshausen, Malte; Kopp, Robert E.)
Number of days with high wet bulb temperatures: Projected average number of days from 2040 to 2059 with wet bulb temperatures above 80 degrees Fahrenheit. (Rasmussen, D. J.; Meinshausen, Malte; Kopp, Robert E.)
Increase in days with high wet bulb temperatures: Projected increase in extreme heat days compared to the present day. (Rasmussen, D. J.; Meinshausen, Malte; Kopp, Robert E.)
Percentage of properties at risk of sea level rise: Percentage of properties with at least a 10% annual chance of flooding by 2050, based on local sea level rise projections. (Zillow; Climate Central)
Percentage of property in flood zones: Percentage of properties in 100-year flood plains by 2050. (First Street Foundation)
Increase in percentage of properties in flood zones: Projected increase in the percentage of properties in flood zones compared to the present day. (First Street Foundation)
Probability of hurricanes: Annualized frequency of hurricanes from January 2014 to April 2021. (FEMA)
Probability of tornadoes: Annualized frequency of tornadoes from January 2014 to April 2021. (FEMA)
Probability of wildfires: Annualized frequency of wildfires from January 2014 to April 2021. (FEMA)
Air quality: Percentage of measured days in 2021 in which the air quality was considered “good.” (Environmental Protection Agency)
How vulnerable a place is to climate change: The susceptibility of a community to the adverse impacts of natural hazards, including disproportionate death, injury, loss, or disruption of livelihood. (University of South Carolina)
How resilient a place is at preparing and adapting to climate change: The ability of a community to prepare for natural hazards, adapt to changing conditions, and recover rapidly from disruptions. (University of South Carolina)
We then weighed, ranked, and scored each urban area based on these factors. Top rankings are directly correlated with a low number of extremely hot and high wet bulb temperature days, a low percentage of properties and total property values with sea level rise or flood risk, a low probability of natural hazards, a high percentage of days with good air quality, a low social vulnerability score, and a high community resiliency score.
